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Keynesian economics, which is the prevalent economics in America, does not address the issue of what is going on in current times - and that is why the Keynesians are finding themselves so unable to predict, that is why they are so disappointed with the results that they are getting economically.  Keynesian economics is the prevalent economics in America, I think, because the focus of most English-speaking people is on the English-speaking world.  I do not come originally from that world, my background is German (and I am fluent in the language), but I grew up in America (and that is why I am also fluent in English) and still live in America.

The Kondratieff wave does describe what is happening - but it came from Russia (story on this website).  The problem for Keynesians is that the Kondratieff wave is compatible with Austrian economics, but not with Keynesian economics.

But the Kondratieff wave does have to be modified by the law against recessions, passed by Congress in 1978 - which is essentially Keynesianism codified in law.  If one takes into account when the law against recessions was first enforced - in the wake of the stock market crash of 1987 (I explain on this website why it was not enforced earlier) - and knows the details of the four phases of the Kondratieff wave so that one can accommodate the Kondratieff wave effectively in the context of the law against recessions, then one can explain everything that is happening these days very easily.

That is what this website does - but I also explain the things that most mainstream English speakers would not be very familiar with, including the Kondratieff wave itself, as well as some other things, and so the overall text on this website is not short.  But I have attempted to break up the issues into manageable chunks with appropriate titles (links) so that a person who is looking at my website for the first time will hopefully not be overwhelmed. 

 


The two things that I did not see coming were the following.

I did not see coming that Bernanke would try so extremely hard late in 2010 to get the economy going again despite how bad things were at the time - but it did not get the economy going much more, my model predicted that it would not and my model also predicted that it would just get everyone very excited and so the Wall Street traders would bid the stock market up substantially and Americans would come into the new year with a lot more enthusiasm than they had before.  I knew the American public would be disappointed - because I knew the real estate problem is not going away (see this website, the third section of links), and in fact real estate prices are starting to drop again, and now gas prices have even come back up again to throw another monkey-wrench into the works.

The other thing that I did not see coming was that real estate demand would pick up again - but I did predict that prices would keep dropping.  I did predict that demand would crash after the tax credit expired last spring (I saw that crash coming - when Congress renewed the tax credit months earlier).  Correctly predicting that prices would keep dropping was actually not hard to do - I explain the situation on this website, see the real estate link in the third section of links, but I will quickly point it out here, too.  All one has to do is accept reality - which most people are not willing to do.  To have prices come back up, we would have to get back up to the level of demand of the bubble boom of the mid-2000's - because we have so much housing inventory these days.  Yes, demand is back up after the crash that came after the expiration of the tax credit - but it is not up nearly enough for prices to start coming back up and there is no way it can get there, especially in this weak economy (which is weakness that I predicted about a decade ago already - see this website).

Update.  In the meantime house prices are up.  But close to half of all sales are for cash, meaning the average person is not participating.  What is happening is that multi billion dollar investment funds are buying up thousands of properties for cash to rent out.  And they are being rented out.  For high rents.  This is no way to save to buy a house and in fact in particular young people are missing from the housing market in the numbers needed, in other words first time home buyers, in part because so many of them have such large student loans to pay back.  So the beginning of the food chain for a sustainable long term rise in house prices is simply not happening.  In other words the rise in home prices is artificial being driven by speculative interests.  


Everything else that is happening, I predicted either very specifically or at least in general terms - but much of it very specifically.