Main Menu

Of the three things, employment, inflation, and deflation, hyperinflation is the thing that the central bank has the most control over. 

That is why that is the least likely of the three to happen in a modern first-world economy. 

Deflation is the thing that the central bank ultimately has the least control over (it is baked right into this coming stage of the Kondratieff wave, for multiple reasons that I won't take the space for right here). 

That is the reason why the overall inflation rate is currently lower than the Fed wants it to be (the Fed likes 2%, anything lower is too close to deflation for their comfort, they have said as much) and the Fed sees it as staying that way for a while, to their chagrin. 

This is happening because the deflationary aspect (in terms of consumer prices) of the deflationary depression phase of our current Kondratieff wave is starting to exert a very meaningful influence, despite the Fed's best efforts, and has actually been doing so ever since the housing market collapsed (viewing housing as a consumer good in this context).  Europe is feeling it even more powerfully for the time being because they are even more dependent on bank lending, but America will eventually feel it, too. 


My biggest concern is that so many Americans are going to get it wrong because most of them are just hoping that things will get back to the way they were before, which can't happen, and most of the alternative thinkers are absolutely convinced that we are headed for a hyperinflation because of all the "money printing," even though that is not actually what is happening and there is actually a law being enforced since 1978 (in terms of inflation) that bans high inflation. 

Given the history of inflation, which is well-known, I do not think Bernanke is that stupid.  And he does keep emphasizing that the Fed takes both parts of its dual mandate, full employment and low inflation, very seriously, just that the Fed is meeting only one half of its mandate right now, the inflation part, and I think the full employment part of its mandate will continue not to be met and, eventually, even the low inflation part will not be met as deflation kicks in. 

As noted above, the hardest to fight, ultimately, is deflation.  They are winning the inflation war (easiest), losing the employment war in the meantime (second-easiest, but hard in the meantime), and will eventually lose the deflation war, as well, when it becomes totally impossible to continue to win that one, too.