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I explain on this website that the big stock market up-move in the 2000's was a bear market bounce - and that the move from March 2009 is also one, and destined to be at least substantially smaller (in price and time) than the one that completed in the 2000's.  But we also have a law against recessions that continues to be enforced (despite the fact that it expired in 2000 - I get into this more elsewhere on this website) and the efforts by the Federal Reserve are why the economy kept going in the early 2000's, despite the big stock market downturn at that time.  In other words, we successfully cheated the stock market exponential at that time.  But exponentials ALWAYS end badly - and this one will be no exception.  The Fed did keep the economy going in the early 2000's in the immediate wake of the stock market exponential - and when that happened, I predicted to myself, based on everything I knew up to that time (which is summarized on this website), that the economy would hold up until sometime between 2007-2010 and then would crash hard.  That is what has happened. 

But I also predicted, based on how markets normally work (when the Fed is not distorting things - the law against recessions became much harder to enforce in 2008, so the markets can work more normally now again) and how many imbalances would have built up by 2007, which happened, that there would be an intermediate recovery after the initial big down-blast (we have had that in the meantime since March 2009) and then there would a new, much bigger economic downturn than the one in 2007-2010.  We are very much on track for that - and it is going to be huge because the stock market exponential has not been allowed to play itself out and the imbalances in the economy have continued to build up in the meantime, for years, with the result that the distortions in the economy are extreme in the meantime.  When that finally rolls over and breaks, it is going to be huge, the consequences of not letting the stock market exponential play itself out in the early 2000's will play themselves out in no uncertain terms.  In other words, we will be hit with the full force of a stock market exponential that is effectively still coming down years after it happened plus all of the imbalances that have built up in the meantime that would not be there if the stock market exponential had been allowed to play itself out at the time.  In other words, the system has been pushed to the limit in the meantime (as evidenced, in part, but very much only in part, by annual budget deficits of well over $1 trillion required in the meantime to keep things going), and any system that gets pushed absolutely to the limit before it gets a chance to turn around turns around dramatically and with full force.  That is what we are going to experience.  

Why do I think this is true?  Because of the Kondratieff wave - which is the (technical analysis) basis for this website.  If you take a look at the beginning of this website, you will notice that the very first thing I bring up after my home page (which I intentionally keep at a very high abstract overview level to keep it very simple) is the Kondratieff wave, and by reading the next few sentences on that first page after the home page, you will find out why I bring it up. 

That is the key - and there is no way around it.  The fact that the authorities are pushing so hard to try to get around it now anyway just means that we are going to be dealing with a really big mess down the road.  This website explains why and suggests solutions for people so that they won't be as dramatically affected as most people will be.