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The final key piece of information for my model did not come to me until the summer of 2001, when I learned about what I call the law against recessions. 

Its official name is Humphrey-Hawkins, and it is a law passed in 1978 and first enforced immediately in the wake of the stock market crash of 1987. 

It expired in the summer of 2000 - but I found out when I found out about it in the summer of 2001 that the authorities in the system in the summer of 2000 had decided that they liked the results of the enforcement of the law up to that time (basically up through the end of the 1990's) so much that they decided to continue to enforce it as if it never expired - and that is what they have done. 

The only thing they had to do was change the name of the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress (on how well the Fed was doing in meeting its mandate) to the semi-annual report to Congress (which is what, in practice, it actually is, it is a report to Congress twice a year, once in the winter and once in the summer), and change the name is what they did. 

They have effectively decided to enforce the law against recessions indefinitely, permanently, in the belief that they can keep the economy going forever. 

That is why there is all the ever-more-extreme pushing to keep the economy going - which is why no one can tell exactly when the big economic crack-up that is coming that I first foretold many years ago is coming - and it is why the longer the crack-up is postponed, the worse it will be.