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Added on 8/10/11

It looks like the top is in

It has taken a while, people have hung on for as long as possible, but it looks like the final, major top is in.  The market has dropped a lot in recent days, it then tried to recover some yesterday afternoon, but lost most of that early this morning again and then all of it and then some late in the day. 

It turned out that the top of May 2 was it - as I suspected at the time (see the link above this one). 

In the meantime, the market has dropped enough that it is all but certain that the final top is in and my main prediction on this website will soon come true.  Given current conditions in the economy and the world, I am virtually certain that the final top is in - but the market itself has not yet dropped enough to confirm that.  I am quite certain that will happen soon.



Update on 6/1/12

The market followed my script until early August last year.  It hung on, but did not go up, until early August, when it crashed down quite a ways in the context of the political mess surrounding the last-minute passage of the debt-limit increase, literally with just hours to spare.  But the people in the system were so spooked by that, and fears of how the public would react, that they did everything they could to attempt to get the stock market back up.  Wall Street was happy to oblige - and up the stock market went, then hanging on again and then eventually even making it to moderate new highs, very slowly, above 13,000 earlier this year, which hung on until recently. 

But now the euro is starting to have its effect in terms of having distorted the eurozone economic situation sufficiently that the weaker euro countries are in increasingly big trouble, with the weakest ones in really big trouble now, and so the eurozone economy is starting to go down hard, and the euro is going down hard with it in recent weeks.  This is resulting in the dollar being driven up hard on the basis of safe-haven buying, America being the leading economic power still for now. 

The result is that everything traded internationally that is priced in dollars is coming down.  The Wall Street traders have resisted this until recently, but the stock market is beginning to come down, too.  In recent days, it has come down a fair amount, and more today with the very weak employment number.  It is clear that once gas prices went back up this spring, employers cut back on hiring because of the increased uncertainty.  Gas prices are now coming back down, but damage is already done and the gas prices have not come down nearly enough to really save the economy yet. 

I think that with Europe now truly in turmoil, more than one country there rapidly imploding, and recent down days in the American stock market being driven by that rather than what is happening in America, and the dollar way up and the euro way down in recent weeks, with the stock market starting to succumb to the situation in a major way, as well (Dow down 275 points today alone, worst single day in six months), the stage is set for the trends to continue. 

It looks like the central banks are beginning to lose control, in part because entire major countries are starting to go bankrupt, not just because of legal debt-limit issues (like in America last summer), but really, actually bankrupt, and in part because the other central banks in the world besides the American one do not have a legal mandate to keep the economy going (they only have a mandate to maintain a stable currency), ultimately they still leave that up to the governments.